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【3月28日】【中央財經大學經濟學院“龍馬經濟學雙周學術論壇”】2019年春季學期第三講·Winter is Coming: Early-life Experiences and Politicians’ Decisions

[發表時間]:2019-03-26 [來源]:經濟學院 [瀏覽次數]:

  講座主題:Winter is Coming: Early-life Experiences and Politicians’ Decisions




  嘉賓簡介:梁平漢,中山大學政治與公共事務管理學院教授,博士生導師,中山大學中國公共管理研究中心研究員。主要研究地方政府行為,博弈論,政治經濟學,行為與實驗經濟學。論文發表在Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Comparative Economics, 《經濟研究》、《管理世界》、《經濟學(季刊)》等國內外一流期刊。獲霍英東基金會高等院校優秀青年教師獎,主持國家自科基金課題,國家社科專項重大子課題等。

  內容摘要:The preferences of politicians matter in policy-making. This paper focuses on the role of local politicians’ early-life experiences in their policy decisions while in office. We take China’s Great Famine (1959–61) as a natural experiment and examine its impact on the fiscal decisions of County Party Secretaries (CPS) who experienced this famine in their early childhood. We construct a data set that matches the biographical information of 2,831 CPS with fiscal data of 1,715 counties during 1993–2007. The results indicate that if CPS experienced a more severe famine that reduced the agricultural population by 10% during their early childhood, other things being equal, they will increase fiscal expenditure on agriculture by 6.8% and increase expenditure on social security by 10.6%. In addition, a 10% more severe famine in early childhood decreases agricultural tax by 38.8%. As a result, the early-life experience of famine leads to more grain production and agricultural employment. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that these influences on agriculture in China are substantial. Furthermore, we also provide evidence that famine experience takes effect through the formation of policy preference for agricultural development, rather than the formation of beliefs about future famine.